Printed on Thu Oct 06 2022 1:12:59 AM

"Mariupol possibly to fall very soon"

International desk

Another assessment of the fighting - this time from Jack Watling, a research fellow for land warfare at think tank the Royal United Services Institute.

He says Irpin, towards the north of Kyiv, is under Ukrainian control once more and shows the disparity in morale, equipment, and resupply between the two sides.

Typically taking a terrain point requires three times the number of opposing troops and even more in an urban environment, he says.

"It shows that where the Russians don't have their artillery restocked they are truly defenseless at the moment," he says.

Mr. Watling also says that it is very likely Mariupol will fall "very soon".

Russian forces will then "start to wrap around" the Ukrainian units in the Donbas region to the east, he says, which incorporates some of Ukraine's best units that have been fighting the longest.

"They will be coming up short on ammo, they will be exceptionally tired and that would be a significant misfortune for the Ukrainian military," he says.

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